By Tridib Raman – News Trust of India
Although Congress-led opposition alliance has faced defeat in the Maharashtra assembly elections just now, it has not lost hope. A united opposition is poised to challenge the BJP-led ruling party with renewed vigour. This determination is likely to be on display in the Winter Session of Parliament, commencing this Monday, where the opposition may collectively rally with the resounding call of “Dum Laga Ke Haisha.” For this session, the BJP-led government has listed 15 bills, including the Wakf Amendment Bill. However, the opposition’s strategy is to corner the government on issues such as Gautam Adani and Madhabi Puri Buch. The opposition plans to demand Prime Minister Modi’s resignation as soon as the session begins. In preparation, Congress has drawn up a list of leaders tasked with executing its parliamentary strategies. At least three meetings have already been held to finalise plans. Party president Mallikarjun Kharge has selected leaders who have been vocal on the Adani issue to represent Congress in the session. Manish Tewari was summoned from Chandigarh to attend these meetings, while Shashi Tharoor was called from Kerala. Despite being occupied with preparations for his daughter’s upcoming wedding—her engagement ceremony was recently held in a private gathering at his residence—Tewari has been instructed to actively participate in the session. Alongside Tharoor and Tewari, Gaurav Gogoi is also expected to take a prominent role on the Adani issue. According to sources, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi himself will spearhead the charge in Parliament. From the Samajwadi Party, Ram Gopal Yadav is coordinating efforts with Congress. If TMC leader Mamata Banerjee gives her approval, Mahua Moitra is also likely to play a proactive role on the Adani issue once again. With the session set to run until December 20, there is a high chance that proceedings will be overshadowed by debates and disruptions centred on Adani.
Government Eager to Pass Waqf Bill
While the opposition is gearing up to make the winter session of Parliament highly contentious, the government’s floor managers, buoyed by a massive victory in Maharashtra, are working diligently to persuade opposition leaders to allow the session to proceed. The recent crisis in Manipur has also added to the central government’s concerns, as the opposition may create an uproar over it. The government strategists have refined their agenda during a meeting at Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s residence. Of the 15 bills shortlisted for this session, 5 are new, while 10 are pending from previous sessions. Among these, the Waqf Bill is a priority, with proposed amendments to the Waqf Act based on the JPC report. Although the opposition had requested additional time to review the report, the chairman of the Joint Parliamentary Committee, Jagdambika Pal, confirmed its readiness.The BJP is optimistic about getting the bill passed. However, according to sources, the government’s much-anticipated ‘One Nation, One Election’ might be shelved for now.
Akhilesh is fielding Javed against Azam
Javed Ali Khan, now a two-term member of the Rajya Sabha from the Samajwadi Party (SP), owes his entry into the party to Mulayam Singh Yadav. Hailing from Sambhal, Javed Ali has leftist roots but joined SP under Mitrasen Yadav’s influence at Mulayam’s request. In 2014, Mulayam initially offered Javed a Lok Sabha ticket from Sambhal, but under pressure from Azam Khan, his ticket was withdrawn, and Shafiqur Rahman, a former BSP member, was given the nomination instead. Javed was assured a Rajya Sabha seat, but it took him 18 months to secure his first term. Now regarded as a close associate of Ram Gopal Yadav, Javed Ali Khan is being groomed by Akhilesh Yadav as SP’s Muslim face in western Uttar Pradesh, countering Azam Khan’s influence. During the recent UP by-elections, Akhilesh assigned Javed to oversee the Kundarki assembly constituency, where Muslims make up 60% of voters. However, Javed reported to Akhilesh that SP might lose Kundarki due to low voter turnout in Muslim- and Yadav-dominated areas. He accused the administration and the PAC of obstructing SP voters from reaching polling booths. Javed also alleged that similar tactics were employed in other constituencies, with the exception of Karhal, where the administration’s efforts against Yadav voters failed.
Chandrashekhar Ravan Challenges SP
This time, the Uttar Pradesh by-election witnessed a unique contest on the Meerapur assembly seat. The Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate faced stiff competition, not only from the RLD candidate but also from Zahid Hussain, the candidate of Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan’s Azad Samaj Party. This development was surprising in many ways and served as a clear indication that ‘Ravan is making a direct dent in the SP’s Muslim vote bank.’ Before securing victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha election from Nagina, Chandrashekhar was reportedly in direct contact with Akhilesh Yadav. However, Akhilesh neither fielded him as a candidate in the 2022 UP assembly elections nor extended direct or indirect support to him in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The stated reason was that Akhilesh, along with his strategist, Professor Ram Gopal Yadav, did not want the emergence of another Dalit leader like Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh. Despite this, Muslim intellectuals in the state, particularly those associated with Aligarh Muslim University, openly expressed their support for Chandrashekhar. Muslim voters played a decisive role in ensuring Chandrashekhar’s victory in Nagina. Since the Meerapur assembly seat is adjacent to both Bijnor and Nagina, the fact that Ravan’s candidate secured over 22,000 votes there further underscores Chandrashekhar Ravan’s growing influence among the Muslim electorate. Similarly, in Kundarki, Ravan’s candidate also secured a strong third position. These results indicate that Chandrashekhar Ravan has the potential to significantly impact Akhilesh’s Muslim vote bank.
BJP’s Saviour Behenji
As per the declared traditions, BSP supremo Mayawati generally does not field her candidates in by-elections. However, since the BJP was in a bit of a bind in this by-election, Behenji once again emerged as the saviour for the BJP. Just like in the 2022 assembly elections, she ensured that this time too, the electoral battle in UP became triangular. However, while the BSP had to be content with just one seat in the 2022 assembly elections, none of the BSP candidates seemed to be winning in these by-elections. And how could they win? Even though Behenji fielded her candidates under BJP’s pressure, neither she nor her nephew Akash Anand went to campaign for them.
Owaisi and Minor Parties: A Blow to MVA in Maharashtra
In the latest Maharashtra Assembly election results, the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) suffered a significant defeat, losing by a large margin. Adding to their woes, internal conflicts among coalition partners have now spilled out into the open. Reports suggest that the ‘Ladki Behna Yojana’ introduced by the Mahayuti government emerged as the biggest game-changer. Another major factor behind Maha Vikas Aghadi’s loss was the division of Muslim votes. Asaduddin Owaisi alone caused considerable damage to the coalition by fielding candidates in 16 seats, which dimmed the prospects of Maha Vikas Aghadi candidates. Over 100 smaller parties also contributed to vote splits on a large scale, further benefiting the Mahayuti candidates on most seats. The BJP, in particular, gained significant advantage from RSS effective booth management strategy.
