18TH Lok Sabha: A Turning Point in Indian Politics

The 18th Lok Sabha promises to be a landmark event in India’s parliamentary history, with a stronger opposition and a coalition government, both sides already experiencing tension and gearing up for significant legislative battles

By Geeta Singh

• Over 78% of 18th Lok Sabha MPs are graduates or have higher education, a rise from the previous Lok Sabha
• The current Lok Sabha is predominantly composed of crorepati MPs.  Out of the 543 winning candidates, 504 are crorepati MPs
• In the 16th and 17th Lok Sabhas, no party met the 10% member requirement to gain recognition as LoP
• In the 16th Lok Sabha, the Deputy Speaker’s post went to AIADMK, but in the 17th Lok Sabha, it remained vacant, unprecedented in Indian history

ON 24th June, the 18th Lok Sabha session began with the oath-taking of new MPs, election of the Speaker and action by the opposition. It will be of ten days which will continue till July 3. There will be a total of 8 meetings in this ten-day session. The strength of the opposition has also increased, so the scene inside the House has also changed. 

This session is set to be significant for several reasons, marking a new phase in India’s parliamentary history.  For the first time during Narendra Modi’s tenure as Prime Minister, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does not have an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. The BJP, with 240 seats, is forming the government in collaboration with its alliance partners from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). 

HISTORIC OPPOSITION STRENGTH

While coalition governments are not new to Indian politics, but, this shift indicates a stronger opposition presence, which is a notable development. The 2024 general election is also historic as it resulted in the numerically largest Opposition in the Lok Sabha. It is perhaps the largest in the history of the House. 

During the oath-taking ceremony of MPs in the new Lok Sabha, most of the India Alliance members, including Congress, held small copies of the Constitution in their hands and shouted the slogan ‘Jai Samvidhaan.’ This action made it clear that the issue of the Constitution was not limited to elections alone; it would remain relevant in the future as well. 

The image that emerged of our lawmakers during the swearing-in ceremony reflected their various ideologies. The ruling party and the opposition appeared completely divided. MPs seemed to prioritise their own political interests, casteism, religionism, regionalism, and linguistic ego over the country, the Constitution, and the parliamentary system.

As the 18th Lok Sabha begins its first session, Prime Minister Modi has promised to govern by consensus. Both, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Opposition INDIA bloc have emphasised the importance of protecting the Constitution, a central theme in the recent 2024 general election campaign. Despite these claims, there has been little agreement on major governance or political issues.

ESCALATING DISAGREEMENT

Tensions from the campaign period persist into this session. The NDA and the INDIA bloc initially clashed over the selection of the pro-tem Speaker, followed by a dispute over the Speaker’s post. Now, they are gearing up for a clash over the Deputy Speaker’s position.

In the 18th Lok Sabha, the NDA attempted to reach a consensus on Om Birla’s nomination as Speaker, but it was unsuccessful. The INDIA bloc fielded K Suresh, MP from Kerala, against Om Birla. Historically, voting for the Speaker’s post has only occurred three times: in 1952, 1967, and 1976. However, the opposition did not demand a vote, and Om Birla was elected by the voice vote. 

While coalition governments are not new to Indian politics, but, this shift indicates a stronger opposition presence, which is a notable development. The 2024 election is also historic as it resulted in the numerically largest Opposition in the Lok Sabha

Following Birla’s election as Speaker, both PM Modi and Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi congratulated him, but the cooperative atmosphere quickly changed. The session began with disagreements over the pro-tem Speaker’s selection and escalated to the Speaker’s post. The Opposition expressed its willingness to support the NDA candidate in exchange for the Deputy Speaker’s post, which is traditionally given to an Opposition member. 

In the 16th Lok Sabha, Deputy Speaker’s post went to the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), but in the 17th Lok Sabha, the post remained vacant, an unprecedented situation in Indian parliamentary history. The BJP has not yet committed to supporting an Opposition candidate for Deputy Speaker.

This time, there is an NDA government instead of a BJP-majority government. Speculation suggests that the main NDA allies, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) might demand the Deputy Speaker’s post. However, Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP has expressed no interest in this position. When the BJP again proposed Om Birla for the Lok Sabha Speaker role, it sought to reach a consensus with the Opposition.

Article 93 of the Constitution mandates the selection of both a Speaker and a Deputy Speaker. Historically, until 1969, the Congress party held both positions, but this changed when the Congress gave the Deputy Speaker’s post to Gilbert G Swale from the All Party Hill Leaders Conference, representing Shillong.

Article 95 of the Constitution states that the Deputy Speaker assumes the Speaker’s responsibilities in their absence. If the Deputy Speaker’s post is vacant, the President selects an MP to perform these duties. According to Article 94, the Speaker must address their resignation to the Deputy Speaker. This protocol was debated in the Constituent Assembly in 1949, with Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar arguing that the Speaker should address their resignation to the President, but it was decided that accountability to the House meant addressing the Deputy Speaker.

Many newly elected MPs have professional backgrounds in the social sector, agriculture, and business. There is also an increase in MPs from the law and judicial sector, rising from 4 percent in the 17th Lok Sabha to 7 percent this time

CHANGING DYNAMICS 

With the Opposition securing over 234 seats, the debate over the Leader of the Opposition (LoP) position has resurfaced. In the 16th and 17th Lok Sabhas, there was no Leader of the Opposition because a party must have a minimum of 10% of the members in the House to gain recognition as a party, according to a direction issued by the Speaker in the 1950s.

In a significant political development, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has taken over as the Leader of the Opposition in the 18th Lok Sabha. This marks the end of a decade-long vacancy in the position, as no opposition party previously met the required strength for the role. Gandhi’s new responsibilities include participating in the selection process for key officials, such as the CBI director, Chief Election Commissioners, National Human Rights Commission chairperson, and Chief Vigilance Commissioner.

Given that the BJP does not hold a majority and is now reliant on its allies, it was expected that its attitude towards the Opposition would change. It was also anticipated that, under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, there would be increased dialogue and cooperation between the ruling party and the Opposition.

However, the initial attitudes of both sides have strengthened concerns that the 18th Lok Sabha will see more conflict than cooperation. The government signals that, despite being viewed as weaker, it remains strong and powerful. Meanwhile, the Opposition has asserted that the ruling party’s arbitrary actions over the past decade will not continue, as the Opposition is now stronger.

The Opposition claims that, although the government holds more seats, the Opposition’s morale is higher due to their increased numbers. This competition to appear stronger and weaken the other side will likely intensify, leading to ongoing conflict between the ruling party and the Opposition in Parliament.

VETERANS SHINE

With the swearing-in of the newly elected MPs, the Parliament once again shines with experienced leaders who meet the people’s expectations. The new Lok Sabha highlights the strength of its seasoned members. 

In the 18th Lok Sabha, 52 MPs have made it to Parliament with a hat-trick of victories. Two veteran MPs have taken the oath for the eighth time.

One standout is BJP MP Virendra Kumar from Tikamgarh, Madhya Pradesh, who has been in Parliament since the 11th Lok Sabha and is taking the oath for the eighth time. He has been appointed as a Union Minister for the third time. Congress MP K Suresh from Kerala is another eight-term winner. He first achieved a hat-trick by being elected to the 9th, 10th, and 11th Lok Sabha, and has been a member continuously since the 15th.

Seven MPs have taken the oath for the seventh time. Among them are BJP MP Mansukh Bhai Dhanji Bhai Vasava from Gujarat, BJP MP Ramesh Chandappa from Bijapur in Karnataka, and Bhartruhari Mahtab, who switched to BJP from Biju Janata Dal. They have all been elected seven times in a row.

Ten members have taken the oath for the sixth time. Notably, BJP MP Shripad Yashonaik from Goa has achieved his sixth consecutive victory. Similarly, ten MPs have become members of Parliament for the fifth time, including Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. 

This time, 35 MPs are joining Parliament for the fourth time, while 73 MPs have taken the oath for the third term. The 18th Lok Sabha will look quite different from its predecessor. One significant change is the education level of the MPs. 

EDUCATIONAL DIVERSITY

Over 78 percent of the MPs in the 18th Lok Sabha are graduates or have higher education, compared to the previous Lok Sabha. Only 22 percent, or 119 MPs, have education up to higher secondary or less, down from 27 percent, or 147 MPs, in the last Lok Sabha. 

Additionally, many newly elected MPs have professional backgrounds in the social sector, agriculture, and business. There is also an increase in MPs from the law and judicial sector, rising from 4 percent in the 17th Lok Sabha to 7 percent this time. Moreover, the number of first-time MPs has increased compared to the previous Lok Sabha.

In the 18th Lok Sabha session, a total of 41 parties have been representing ‘aam aadmi’, whereas in the 17th Lok Sabha, only 36 parties had secured seats. Out of the 543 MPs elected to the 18th Lok Sabha, 423 MPs hold graduate or higher degrees. Additionally, 27 MPs in this session also possess doctorate degrees. 

In contrast, during the 17th Lok Sabha, there were 396 MPs with graduation and above education, and approximately 21 MPs held doctorate degrees. These details are based on a report by PRS Legislative Research, an agency, that researches Parliament’s functioning.

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections indeed witnessed a surge in the number of candidates vying for the 543 seats. Over 8,000 candidates contested, marking the highest count since 1996 when a record 13,952 candidates participated. 

CROREPATIS GALORE

The current Lok Sabha is predominantly composed of crorepati MPs. According to the Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR), out of the 543 winning candidates, 504 are crorepati MPs. This means that 93 percent of the candidates elected to the Lok Sabha in 2024 have declared assets worth more than one crore rupees. Notably, this figure was 88 percent in 2019, with 475 winning candidates falling into the crorepati category.

In the 17th Lok Sabha, the richest candidate was Ramesh Kumar Sharma, whose assets were valued at a staggering 1,108 crore. Going back to 2014, 443 candidates (82 percent) were crorepati MPs, and Infosys co-founder Nandan Nilekani held the title of the richest candidate that year, with assets worth Rs 7,710 crore.

The trend has been steadily climbing since 2009 when only 315 (58 percent) MPs were crorepati. In the recent analysis, it was found that 227 (95 percent) of the BJP’s 240 winning candidates, 92 (93 percent) of the Congress’ 99, 21 (95 percent) of the DMK’s 22, 27 (93 percent) of the TMC’s 29, and 34 (92 percent) of the Samajwadi Party’s 37 candidates have declared assets exceeding one crore rupees. Additionally, all winning candidates from the AAP (3), the JDU (12), and the TDP (16) are also crorepati, as per ADR data.

The analysis further explores the correlation between financial backgrounds and electoral success. The probability of a millionaire candidate winning in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections stands at 19.6 percent, while candidates with assets less than a crore have a meagre 0.7 percent chance of victory.

Breaking down wealth distribution among winning candidates:

• 42 percent possess assets totaling Rs 10 crore and above.
• 19 percent fall within the bracket of Rs 5 to 10 crore.
• 32 percent hold assets ranging between Rs 1 and 5 crore.
• Only about 1 percent of winning candidates have assets worth less than Rs 20 lakh.

Among major parties, the average assets per winning candidate vary significantly:

• TDP leads with an average of Rs 442.26 crore per winner.
• BJP follows with Rs 50.04 crore.
• DMK stands at Rs 31.22 crore.
• Congress reports Rs 22.93 crore.
• TMC holds Rs 17.98 crore.
• SP has Rs 15.24 crore.

Interestingly, there are disparities within the financial profiles of winning candidates. While some boast substantial assets, others have relatively low net worth. For instance:

• BJP’s Jyotirmay Singh Mahato from West Bengal’s Purulia has declared assets totalling a mere Rs 5 lakh.
• TMC’s Mitali Bag from West Bengal’s Arambagh holds assets worth Rs 7 lakh.
• SP’s Priya Saroj from Uttar Pradesh’s Machhlishahr has assets valued at Rs 11 lakh.

Additionally, the analysis identifies candidates with high liabilities:

• TDP’s Pemmasani tops the list with liabilities exceeding Rs 1,038 crore.
• DMK’s S Jagathratchakan from Tamil Nadu’s Arakkonam has liabilities worth Rs 649 crore.
• TDP’s Prabhakar Reddy Vemireddy from Andhra Pradesh’s Nellore carries liabilities worth Rs 197 crore. 

BALANCING YOUTH AND EXPERIENCE

Despite India’s youthful population, the average age of MPs in the 18th Lok Sabha is 56 years, surpassing the 55-year mark for the second time in history. Notably, 25 MPs are below 35 years old, and the number of MPs aged 66 and above has decreased from 116 in 2019 to 105 in 2024. 

Additionally, 11 MPs are above 76 years old, while 94 fall between 66 and 75 years. These statistics provide a glimpse into the evolving dynamics of India’s parliamentary representation.

In the first Lok Sabha elections of 1951-52, the average age of MPs was 46.5 years, making it the second youngest to date. At that time, 82 MPs were below the age of 35, the highest number ever, meaning roughly one in six MPs was under 35. In contrast, in 2024, only one in every 20 MPs is under 35, reflecting a decline in youth representation over the years.

An analysis using ADR data and information from the Lok Sabha Secretariat, reveals that the youngest Lok Sabha to date was elected in 1998, with an average MP age of 46.4 years. This average is calculated by dividing the total age of all MPs by their total number.

In the current Lok Sabha, the oldest MP is DMK’s TR Baalu, aged 82, from Tamil Nadu’s Sriperumbudur. He is the only MP above 80. The second oldest is Awadhesh Prasad, 79, from Uttar Pradesh’s Faizabad, followed by 78-year-old Jitan Ram Manjhi from Gaya, Bihar.

During their oath-taking ceremony, several young MPs garnered attention. Notable among them were Sanjana Jatav from the Congress, Pushpendra Saroj and Iqra Hasan from the Samajwadi Party and Shambhavi Chaudhary from Lok Janshakti (Ram Vilas).  Overall, there are seven MPs below 30 years old: 3 from Congress, 3 from SP, and 1 from Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). According to ADR data, Congress has the highest number of MPs below 35 years, with six, followed by BJP and SP, each with four MPs under 35.

The average age of MPs in the 18th Lok Sabha is 56 years, which represents a slight decrease from the 59-year average in the 17th Lok Sabha. Notably, the highest number of MPs (175) falls within the age group of 56 to 65 years, a trend consistent with the past four Lok Sabha elections. In 2014, there were also 175 MPs in this age bracket.

However, an interesting shift occurred in the distribution of MPs across age groups. In 2014, only 71 MPs were in the next age group (66-75 years), but in 2024, this number has increased to 94.

Additionally, the 18th Lok Sabha features the lowest number of MPs above the age of 75 since 2009. Specifically, only 11 MPs are over 76 years old, down from 13 in both 2019 and 2014, and 16 in 2009. It’s worth noting that while the normal retirement age in Indian offices typically ranges between 60 and 65 years, in politics, individuals aged 50 or 60 are still considered relatively young.

WOMEN REPRESENTATION

Fewer women will be seen at the 18th Lok Sabha session, as only 74 women have been elected this time, down from 79 women MPs in the 17th Lok Sabha. However, of the 74 women MPs this term, a significant portion—43 MPs—are first-time members. Women MPs will now constitute 13.6% of the new Lok Sabha, down from 14.3% in the previous term, although an increase from 5% in the first Lok Sabha.

In the 2024 elections, women MPs were elected from 14 parties, with the BJP leading with 31 MPs, followed by Congress with 13, TMC with 11, Samajwadi Party with 5, and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam with 3. The average age of the 74 women MPs elected is 50 years. 

Fewer women will be seen at the 18th Lok Sabha session, as only 74 women have been elected this time, down from 79 women MPs in the 17th Lok Sabha

Around 10% of candidates in the 2024 elections were women, marking an increase from previous years. When compared to their internal gender ratios, TMC leads with 37.93%, followed by Congress with 13.13%, and BJP with 12.92%.

Women will make up 13.63% of the total strength of the lower house, a decrease from 14.5% last term—the highest representation in all these years. This is lower than the 33% mandated in the Nari Shakti Adhiniyam, which is set to come into effect after the next delimitation exercise. India’s representation of women in the Lok Sabha, at 13.63%, falls behind several other countries, with South Africa, the UK, and the US boasting higher percentages. Compared to countries like Rwanda and Cuba, India’s representation of women in legislatures remains relatively low.

SHIFTING POLITICAL DYNAMICS

A new story of OBC empowerment has been written in Parliament this year. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have highlighted a significant increase in the representation of OBC MPs, with 138 OBC MPs elected this time. In contrast, the number of upper caste MPs has decreased to 140, and there are 74 MPs from the intermediate castes. While the number of SC-ST MPs has remained the same, there has been a slight increase in Sikh MPs. The number of Muslim MPs has decreased, and the number of Christian MPs has remained the same. (see box1) 

Political analysts believe that Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Akhilesh Yadav has understood the ground realities, though later than expected. Amit Shah had previously aligned with smaller OBC groups in 2014, keeping them with the BJP. 

This time, Akhilesh Yadav used a similar strategy by giving more tickets to OBC candidates and fewer to those from his own community. He also successfully communicated to voters that Modi might change Baba Saheb Ambedkar’s constitution, attracting a portion of the backward and Dalit voters. This led to a higher number of backward castes in Parliament, a sign that these castes are becoming part of the political elite.

After a decade, India is back to a coalition era with NDA. The question now is whether Modi can adapt to the dynamics of alliances and accommodate the interests of coalition partners. In summary, the 18th Lok Sabha session represents a pivotal moment in India’s political landscape, with changes in majority dynamics and a historic Opposition strength. It’s a fascinating phase to watch unfold!